Arquivo da tag: statistics

Sentences to Ponder

Ptolemy had (…) a universal approximator. He just didn’t know it. With enough epicycles and cycles, one could approximate any orbital system as closely as one wanted. In essence, the mistake (but he couldn’t have known it) was to try … Continuar lendo

Publicado em english, estatística | Marcado com , , , , , , , , , , | Deixe um comentário

Hume, Kant, Causality in Statistics and the no-free-lunch theorems

Note: In what follows, I take some notes on some thoughts about how learning is possible. My notes try to connect Hume, Kant and Nietzsche with statistics (Bayesian inference and causal models) and computer science (machine learning results like the … Continuar lendo

Publicado em ciência, english, estatística, orquídeas selvagens | Marcado com , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comentários

On the Likelihood Principle

Deborah Mayo presented a new version of her critique of the Strong Likelihood Principle. And since a few friends have asked me about what is the Likelihood Principle, I`ll try to explain here why it is important (and if I’m … Continuar lendo

Publicado em english, estatística, Manoel Galdino | Marcado com , , , , , , , , , | Deixe um comentário

When is statistical significance not significant?

Nota: Abaixo é um texto em inglês. Como é sobre um tema de estatística, creio que dos meus 2 ou 3 leitores, 1 ou 2 talvez não leiam inglês, mas certamente não estão perdendo muita coisa. The above is the … Continuar lendo

Publicado em english, estatística, Manoel Galdino, Política e Economia | Marcado com , , , , | 3 Comentários

Power-law distribution and the right question

I really didn’t like this article at Forbes. I agree with the main line of the article, but not with one of the reasons to support the main argument. The central thesis is that it’s not enough to know math … Continuar lendo

Publicado em estatística, Manoel Galdino | Marcado com , , , , , , , | Deixe um comentário

Dependencies and stationarity in time series

I really like this stuff, even though I don’t fully understand it. ps.: I already know that I’ll never know enough of statistics to understand everything in the link (it’s far away from what I study). But sometimes I wish … Continuar lendo

Publicado em estatística | Marcado com , , , , , | Deixe um comentário

That modeling feeling and lost in translation

With some delay, my Friday post (on Saturday!). Andrew Gelman linked to a post by Kaiser Fung in which he described three hours in the life of a statistician (or data scientist, as Fung put). The post by Fung is … Continuar lendo

Publicado em ciência, english, estatística, orquídeas selvagens, poesia | Marcado com , , , , | 1 Comentário